The Cox Plate is the weight for age championship of Australasia but The Wolf thinks the 2019 edition will be won by a foreign raider.

1. Black Heart Bart

Trainer: Linsdey Smith
Jockey: Brad Rawiller
Weight: 59kg
Barrier: 11
Odds: $26

Staged a dramatic form reversal two starts back to win the Underwood Stakes then held that form with a strong second in the Caulfield Stakes. The Wolf highly doubts that, as well as he is going, they are the right formlines for the Cox Plate.

2. Avilius

Trainer: James Cummings
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Weight: 59kg
Barrier: 7
Odds: $11

Shaped as one of the key chances before a flat out disappointing effort in the Caulfield Stakes. He is clearly a better horse on wet ground though and if the heavens open, he comes into it.

3. Kluger

Trainer: Tomokazu Takano
Jockey: Tommy Berry
Weight: 59kg
Barrier: 9
Odds: $15

Japanese galloper who has good form already in this country, having run fourth in the Doncaster back in the autumn as well as running second to Winx, beaten just over a length, in the Queen Elizabeth. He has to be respected but everything suggests he is the lesser of the two Japanese runners.

4. Harlem

Trainer: David & Ben Hayes & Tom Dabernig
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Weight: 59kg
Barrier: 2
Odds: $41

Bobbed up to run third in the Caulfield Stakes at cricket score odds but his previous form was patchy at best. It’s a no from The Wolf.

5. Homesman

Trainer: Liam Howley
Jockey: Ben Melham
Weight: 59kg
Barrier: 16
Odds: $19

Set for this race after running second in the Caulfield Cup year and while his form has been consistent, it is through races like the Underwood Stakes and Cualfield Stakes that have looked quite weak. The barrier is a big problem for him as well. Looking around him.

6. Kings Will Dream

Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Weight: 59kg
Barrier: 17
Odds: $18

Had the perfect run in the Turnbull Stakes and was also well weighted there under the set weights and penalties conditions. Barrier 17 looks to put paid to his chances.

7. Te Akau Shark

Trainer: Jamie Richards
Jockey: Opie Bosson
Weight: 59kg
Barrier: 18
Odds: $20

Comes in off a great run in the Epsom Handicap when caught three wide throughout, and he had to give the winner 4Kg there. While he shapes as though he will run 2000m, he has never been tested over the trip. Winning chance at odds.

8. Danceteria

Trainer: David Menuisier
Jockey: Jamie Spencer
Weight: 59kg
Barrier: 10
Odds: $17

Last start Group 1 winner in Germany back in July. Respect the fact that Jamie Spencer has come out to ride him and in a year where the locals look to be lacking he can’t be discounted.

9. Lys Gracieux

Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi
Jockey: Damian Lane
Weight: 57kg
Barrier: 15
Odds: $3.50

Star Japanese mare who is proven overseas with a couple of unlucky runs in Hong Kong over the last couple of years. By way of comparison, on their Japanese form she is far superior to last week’s Caulfield Cup winner Mer De Glace. She can sit anywhere Damian Lane wants in the run and is clearly the one to beat.

10. Magic Wand

Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Weight: 57kg
Barrier: 3
Odds: $13

Veteran stayer who keeps fronting up but isn’t good enough here. Well travelled mare with an unimpressive winning strike rate (2/18) but has travelled well before and her trainer and jockey knows what it takes to win this race – they won with Adelaide in 2014. In fact, her preparation is very similar to that of Adelaide. Must be respected.

11. Cape Of Good Hope

Trainer: David & Ben Hayes & Tom Dabernig
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Weight: 56.5kg
Barrier: 8
Odds: $10

Given little chance in the betting first up in the Caulfield Stakes but came out and won impressively. To The Wolf, that speaks more to the quality of that field since he is far from the best credentialed international runner in this race. Chance but looks short enough.

12. Mystic Journey

Trainer: Adam Trinder
Jockey: Anthony Darmanin
Weight: 55.5kg
Barrier: 6
Odds: $7.00

Comes into this race with question marks over her last two performances, including whether she runs a strong 2000m. Even if you give her the benefit of the doubt on that front it doesn’t look like the right platform into this race given how short she is. Looking around her.

13. Verry Elleegant

Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: James McDonald
Weight: 55.5kg
Barrier: 5
Odds: $18

Ran a much improved race last time out to win the Hill Stakes but that does not look like Cox Plate form to The Wolf.

14. Castelvecchio

Trainer: Richard Litt
Jockey: Craig Williams
Weight: 49.5kg
Barrier: 4
Odds: $8.00

A big firmer in betting, although he was beaten in the Spring Champion Stakes by Shadow Hero, he was stretching out from 1400m to 2000m which is always a difficult assignment. Certainly rates a winning chance but he looks rock bottom odds.

15. Humidor (emergency)

Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Weight: 59kg
Barrier: 14
Odds: $34

Has a terrific record in this race but he simply isn’t the horse he was. Committee made the right decision leaving him out.

16. Mr Quickie (emergency)

Trainer: Phillip Stokes
Jockey: Glen Boss
Weight: 57.5kg
Barrier: 12
Odds: $31

Put in a shocker two starts back in the Turnbull but ran okay after bungling the start in the Caulfield Cup. Place hope on his best form.

17. Gailo Chop (emergency)

Trainer: Matthew Williams
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Weight: 59kg
Barrier: 1
Odds: $41

Another well past his best who would only be making up the numbers.

18. Dream Castle (emergency)

Trainer: Saeed Bin Suroor
Jockey: Patrick Cosgrave
Weight: 59kg
Barrier: 13
Odds: $91

Simply awful in the Caulfield Stakes, no thanks.

Top 5

Lys Gracieux’s best form will win this race. Magic Wand has the right credentials and comes from the right stable. Avilius is the best of the locals.

1. Lys Gracieux
2. Magic Wand
3. Avilius
4. Danceteria
5. Kluger

Odds correct as of 4.00pm, Tuesday 22 October